Summer 2026 box office sets new records with blockbusters

As Disney-Marvel’s “Spider-Man: Brand New Day” approached its July 31 release date, Devin Fickling made preparations. As property manager for the Sayville Theater, Fickling doubled his weekend staff to eight and scheduled himself for shifts as well. He booked “Spider-Man” onto two screens and persuaded the studios to let him spread three other proven performers — “The Odyssey,” “Minions & Monsters” and “Toy Story 5” — across his remaining two screens. And he put another two employees on call, just in case.

After last summer’s meh movie-season, “Summer of ‘26 is going to be completely different,” Fickling predicted. “We’re getting ready for an amazing turnout.”

Amazing, indeed. “Spider-Man: Brand New Day,” the fourth Marvel film to feature Tom Holland in the lead role, scored the highest domestic opening weekend on record with $360 million and crossed the worldwide $1 billion mark in just six days. (Only “Avengers: Endgame” did that faster, earning $1.2 billion over its opening weekend in 2019.) Meanwhile, “The Odyssey,” Christopher Nolan’s adaptation of the Greek epic starring Matt Damon, drew in $51 million, helping the movie industry score its biggest-ever domestic weekend total with $430 million. When the dust settles, the summer of 2026 just might go down in blockbuster history.

That’s good news for Hollywood, which has seen years of post-pandemic box-office tallies top out at a disappointing $7 or $8 billion. (The total for 2019 had been $11.3 billion.) The writers’ and actors’ strikes of 2023 further upended the film industry and brought dozens of productions to a halt. Still, a promising lineup of movies for 2026 suggested that the year might edge past the $9 billion mark, according to Daniel Loria, editorial director at BoxOfficePro, the official publication of the theater-owner trade group Cinema United. But thanks to better-than-expected performances across the board, Loria said, “This is looking like the first $10 billion year of the decade.”

HORROR SCARES UP BIG NUMBERS

The rebound may have started with an unlikely title: “Scream 7,” the latest entry in a horror-comedy franchise that originated in the mid-1990s. Featuring original star Courteney Cox, 62, alongside such youngsters as Isabel May and Mackenna Grace, the film might have been seen as a little long in the tooth. After all, most horror franchises that make it to the seven-film mark begin to tucker out: “Saw 3D” opened with $22 million in 2010 and “Resident Evil: Welcome to Raccoon City” barely squeaked out a $5 million opening in 2021, according to BoxOfficeMojo.

“Scream 7” met with weak reviews and a low B- from CinemaScore, the audience tracking firm — but none of that mattered. The movie landed a strong $63 million domestic opening anyway. “This audience knows these characters and story and that’s what they want to see,” box office analyst David A. Gross wrote in his FranchiseRE newsletter, adding: “This is sensational business.”

Horror became the gift that kept on giving this year — especially when it came from out of left field. In May, “The Mandalorian and Grogu,” Disney’s long-awaited addition to the “Star Wars” universe — which also marked the big-screen debut of viral star Baby Yoda, aka Grogu — notched a solid $81 million opening weekend. Nevertheless, it arrived between two low-budget horror titles, the previous week’s “Obsession,” about a young man who casts a spell on his crush, and the following week’s “Backrooms,” about the mysterious appearance of a seemingly endless maze of spaces. Ultimately, “Grogu” would earn the least of the three worldwide ($345 million) with “Backrooms” grossing $390 million and “Obsession” notching $475 million, according to BoxOfficeMojo.

SPRING: REBOUND BEGINS

The March release “Project Hail Mary,” a sci-fi adventure starring Ryan Gosling, became a presummer must-see that earned $684 million worldwide. Then April brought two more hits. “The Super Mario Galaxy Movie,” a video-game-based sequel, rocketed just past the $1 billion mark. “Michael,” starring an unknown Jaafar Jackson as his late uncle, Michael Jackson, earned more than $1 billion worldwide to become the highest-grossing biopic of all time. “The Devil Wears Prada 2,” a long-awaited sequel that reunited a beloved cast led by Meryl Streep, opened May 1 and earned $690 million worldwide.

One promising trend, Loria noted: The hit movies are sticking around. Most movies, even successful ones, tend to drop about 40% to 50% in their second week and continue to decline fairly steeply. By contrast, hits like “Project Hail Mary,” “The Odyssey,” “The Super Mario Galaxy Movie” and “Obsession” all dropped by less than 30% in their second weeks and continued to stay strong as the weeks went by.

“Word of mouth is really having an impact,” according to Loria. “It’s not just, ‘I went back to the movies,’” he explained. “It’s ‘I went back to the movies and you have got to see this.’”

FAMILY FILMS ARE POPULAR

One of the most dependable bright spots continues to be family-oriented films. The two top domestic earners of 2026 so far are “Toy Story 5” with $461 million and “The Super Mario Galaxy Movie” with $429 million, according to BoxOfficeMojo. Also in the year’s top 20 are “Minions & Monsters,” “Hoppers” and “Zootopia 2” (a holdover from last November). And although Disney’s live-action “Moana,” starring Dwayne Johnson as the god Maui, opened with a disappointing $43 million domestically, it’s the year’s 16th highest-grossing film.

“The kid pictures always do well,” Jay Levinson, owner of The Bellmore Playhouse, said, especially during summers when free time is plentiful and weather can help drive audiences. “When it rains, they have no place to go, so they come to the movies,” he explained.

AUGUST COULD BE A PROBLEM

August, Levinson warned, looks a little slow. There are two dinosaur-themed releases, the fantasy-adventure “The End of Oak Street” and the animated comedy “Paw Patrol: The Dino Movie.” Jason Statham will star in the action flick “Mutiny” while Ridley Scott’s postapocalyptic thriller “The Dog Stars” will feature hunk-of-the-moment Jacob Elordi. None of these titles, however, are expected to become blockbusters.

“We call it the August frost,” Levinson said. “We’re depending on ‘Spider-Man’ to carry us through.”

WILL THANKSGIVING BE A TURKEY AT  THE BOX OFFICE?

Fickling also expects a post-summer slump, he said, and he’s additionally concerned about Thanksgiving week, which lacks a big family-oriented draw like 2024’s “Wicked” and its 2025 sequel “Wicked: For Good.” Instead, Disney will release “Hexed,” an animated comedy about a teenage girl with magical powers, while Paramount will release “Focker-In-Law,” part of a comedy franchise that launched with 2000’s “Meet the Parents” starring Robert De Niro and Ben Stiller.

“It doesn’t look like there’s a very strong family movie coming out,” Fickling acknowledged. “I think there will be a bit of drop-off with the holiday season. But with the good year we’re having so far, I’m confident we’ll still be up” year over year, he added.

FALL, HOLIDAY FORECAST

As for fall, October will include two possible Oscar-bait titles: “Digger,” a collaboration between Tom Cruise and director Alejandro G. Iñárritu, and “The Social Reckoning,” an Aaron Sorkin-directed sequel to “The Social Network” that replaces Jesse Eisenberg with Jeremy Strong as Facebook founder Mark Zuckerberg. The two most likely blockbusters for the end of 2026 are “Dune: Part Three,” the finale to Denis Villeneuve’s sci-fi trilogy starring Timothee Chalamet, and “Avengers: Doomsday,” a Marvel epic in which Robert Downey Jr. trades his Iron Man mask for the dark green hood of the villainous Doctor Doom. Both are scheduled for December.

“I’m lucky I have what I have, and we had a good summer,” Levinson said. “But you always have to worry about the next time.”