When it was announced earlier today that Greta Gerwig’s “Narnia: The Magician’s Nephew” is moving from a plum Thanksgiving theatrical release to now going wide in IMAX on February 12, 2027, the inevitable question followed: what does this mean for its Oscars potential?
Netflix originally placing its highly anticipated new take on the world of “Narnia” on the calendar right around the same time its recent comp, blockbuster Best Picture nominee “Wicked,” first launched was an early indication that the streaming service had faith in Gerwig delivering her fourth Best Picture nominee in a row. That would have meant breaking her own record as the most-nominated female filmmaker in the category.
But the initial concern of “Narnia” being pulled from contention in the 99th Oscars race is not one presumably shared by the writer/director herself.
First of all, we have yet to receive any sort of first look at the project, so we can also make the assumption that the film will need more time to come together, especially considering the visual effects involved in nailing a character like Aslan, the godlike lion figure key to the book series. Second, the new Netflix gamble on a more substantial IMAX release, with a longer theatrical window, gives it more time to breathe in February. Now, it will not compete for premium format screens with what will presumably be the biggest films of the year like “Avengers: Doomsday” and “Dune: Part Three” — both of which are set to come to theaters before the “Narnia” theatrical run would have likely ended via the film arriving on the streaming service on Christmas Day.
If Gerwig or Netflix’s true concern were for the film to win Oscars, either party would have pushed to hold the line, or delay the film even further into a spot that more naturally engenders awards attention. But Gerwig’s M.O. has treated those achievements in Oscars recognition as supplementary. For example, she told IndieWire in 2023 that the reason she took on the challenge of making a “Barbie” movie was because “there was a confluence of circumstances which made us able go for broke. Because we thought, ‘Well, this will never get made. So if it will never get made, let’s make the greatest, craziest thing that will never get made.’ There was a private wish to conjure back the world. And let’s make something that people would want to see together. But the more immediate reality was, ‘They’re not going to let us do it.’”
The same line of thinking could have fueled her first project after the success of her directorial debut “Lady Bird” being a new “Little Women” adaptation. A fair reading of Gerwig’s career seems to be that she has a keen understanding of what kind of intellectual properties are already inevitably set into motion, and a willingness to be the brave soul daring to push through the best versions of those adaptations.
In other words, with “Barbie,” it does not sound like she and partner Noah Baumbach wrote it thinking, “How do we write a ‘Barbie’ movie that will be nominated for Oscars?” Everything she has said about the project makes it sound like the real question was, “How do we make a ‘Barbie’ movie that people actually want to see?’”
The discussion around the Barbenheimer phenomenon was much more about “Barbie” and Christopher Nolan’s “Oppenheimer” driving audiences back to the theaters after the COVID-19 pandemic nearly ended theatergoing altogether. Not Oscars attention, which still followed.
This is not at all to say that there isn’t a desire for “Narnia” to win an Oscar or five. Netflix is definitely still hungry for its first Best Picture win, and Gerwig has not been the type to show any aversion to awards campaigns. But another recent development in the awards space is that a late fall release is no longer the be-all and end-all for a Best Picture win. In fact, four of the last five Best Picture winners already had their premieres before the start of fall festival season.
The concern over whether or not Ryan Coogler’s “Sinners” would be perceived as an “awards contender,” having been released in April 2025, was eradicated by the film breaking the record for most Oscar-nominated film of all time. Phil Lord and Chris Miller’s “Project Hail Mary” being scheduled for a March 2026 release was seen as a hindrance on the film’s Oscar chances, up until the Andy Weir adaptation quickly and easily became the highest-grossing Amazon MGM Studios release of all time.
So while it is true that a Best Picture contender premiering in theaters in February is unconventional, recent history supports the idea that Netflix and Gerwig’s concerns are much more about delivering a film that people will enjoy and pay money to see. Think of it as a more “if you build it, he will come” approach, with the “he” being Oscar voters whose overall onus is to nominate what they think are the best films of the year, regardless of which month they came to theaters.
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