Will “Avatar: Fire and Ash” hit the box office trifecta?
James Cameron’s two previous epics, 2009’s “Avatar” and 2022’s “Avatar: The Way of Water,” each grossed well over $2 billion globally and stand as two of the biggest movies in history. So Hollywood has lofty expectations for the third installment, to say the least.
Based on projections, Disney’s “Avatar: Fire and Ash” is poised to lead with $90 million to $105 million from 3,800 theaters. The film should collect another $250 million to $275 million in its international debut for a global start between $340 million to $365 million. Turnout is expected to be particularly robust on Imax and 3D screens.
It’s worth remembering that “Avatar” films are known, not for splashy opening weekends, but rather for unparalleled box-office staying power. The original debuted to $77 million domestically and held onto the No. 1 spot for seven weeks, eventually climbing to $760 million in North America and $2.92 billion worldwide. The sequel (despite a daunting runtime of three hours and 12 minutes) collected $134 million in its domestic debut before powering to $688 million in North America and $2.3 billion worldwide.
Should “Fire and Ash” chart a similar box office path (assuming the butt-numbing runtime of three hours and 17 minutes doesn’t intimidate audiences this time around either), “Avatar” could become the first film franchise in history with three installments to earn above $2 billion. Disney’s Marvel Cinematic Universe is tied with two $2 billion behemoths, 2019’s “Avengers: Endgame” and 2018’s “Avengers: Infinity War.” Meanwhile Cameron is already the only filmmaker with three movies to generate more than $2 billion, the other being “Titanic.” The newest “Avatar” doesn’t necessarily need to surpass the $2 billion mark to be successful, however Cameron’s films carry gargantuan price tags and require towering global ticket sales to justify their budgets.
“Avatar” follows the clan of Jake Sully (Sam Worthington) and Neytiri (Zoe Saldaña) on the alien moon of Pandora. “Fire and Ash” picks up after the events of “The Way of Water,” which charted the conflict between the blue-skinned humanoids known as the Na’vi against the villainous Resources Development Administration. After the death of Jake Sully’s son Neteyam, he and his family seek refuge with the aquatic clan called Metkayina and continue the fight against the RDA as well as a new fiery foe. Variety’s chief film critic Owen Gleiberman was mostly positive in his review, writing that the threequel is “better than the second film — bolder and tighter — and still has its share of amazements. But it no longer feels visually unprecedented.”
Rival studios didn’t feel the need to steer clear of “Avatar: Fire and Ash” at the box office. Three new movies, Paramount’s “The SpongeBob Movie: Search for SquarePants,” Lionsgate’s psychological thriller “The Housemaid” and the Angel Studios animated biblical musical drama “David,” will try to work as counter-programming against the Pandora-set adventure. Those films will float behind “Fire and Ash” on box office charts. However, “Avatar” and “Star Wars”-sized tentpoles aside, Christmastime releases don’t always deliver huge debuts but tend to play and play on the big screen into January and beyond.
“The Housemaid” is targeting a $20 million to $25 million debut from 3,000 venues. Lionsgate is trying to couch expectations by offering a projection in the mid teens. The studio hopes the $35 million-budgeted film will become a breakout hit among females in the vein of “A Simple Favor,” “Anyone but You,” or “It Ends With Us” (but without the off-screen drama). Directed by Paul Feig (“Bridesmaids”) and adapted from the best-selling novel by Freida McFadden, the R-rated film follows a young woman (Sydney Sweeney) with a troubled past who becomes the live-in maid for an ultra-wealthy family who isn’t what it seems. Amanda Seyfried and Brandon Sklenar play the not-so-picture-perfect husband and wife while Michele Morrone and Elizabeth Perkins round out the cast. Variety’s Gleiberman praised the campy nature of “The Housemaid,” saying the movie “goes right over-the-top, but it does so in a way that’s unusually clever and knowing.”
“David,” a kid-friendly take on the story of David and Goliath and follow-up to the TV mini-series “Young David,” could surprise with $20 million to $25 million from 3,100 screens. Angel Studios, which emerged onto the theatrical scene with 2023’s sleeper hit “Sound of Freedom,” has been dominating the faith-based space. Earlier this year, the company released the animated biblical adventure “King of Kings,” which ignited to $19 million and held steady, eventually earning $60 million domestically and $79 million worldwide.
“The SpongeBob Movie: Search for SquarePants” is tracking for the No. 4 spot with projections of $15 million to $20 million from 3,500 locations. The PG-rated film cost $64 million to produce. Based on the hit Nickelodeon television show, “Search for SquarePants” follows the absorbent, yellow sponge as he ventures out of Bikini Bottom and travels to the depths of the ocean to find the scary Flying Dutchman.
This is the first big-screen “SpongeBob” feature in 10 years, since 2015’s “The SpongeBob Movie: Sponge Out of Water.” That film opened to $55 million and eventually powered to $162 domestically and $325 million globally. Those ticket sales were a huge improvement from the original successful theatrical adventure, 2004’s “The SpongeBob SquarePants Movie, which launched with $32 million and ended its run with $85 million in North America and $141 million worldwide. A third installment, “The SpongeBob Movie: Sponge on the Run,” debuted directly on streaming in 2020 at the height of the pandemic.
These films, as well as the Christmas Day release of A24’s Timothée Chalamet-led ping-pong adventure “Marty Supreme,” the Focus Features musical drama “Song Sung Blue” starring Hugh Jackman and Kate Hudson, and Sony’s disaster comedy “Anaconda” with Jack Black and Paul Rudd, will attempt to kick the box office into high gear before the end of the year. Overall domestic ticket sales sit at $8.1 billion, a mere 0.5% ahead of last year as well as 22.7% behind 2019, according to Comscore. So there’s mounting pressure on holiday offerings to inch the year’s revenues closer to the projected $9 billion mark.
It’s all coming down to you, Jim Cameron. (No pressure.)
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