It has been a satisfying month for those who resent Hollywood’s reliance on the same old, same old. Original titles from two fresh new filmmakers, with an assist from an elder statesman, have defined the marketplace while the return of one of the most hallowed franchises in Hollywood and the attempted revival of an older one made a swift exit.
But as much of a welcome gift as “Obsession” and “Backrooms” have been to movie theaters and to their distributors, the 2026 summer box office wasn’t expected to be a $4 billion-plus season because of those films. Such optimism came from other Hollywood IP that has a much greater foothold than “Masters of the Universe,” like Disney/Pixar’s “Toy Story 5.”
Seven years after “Toy Story 4” grossed $1.07 billion at the global box office, the return of Pixar’s flagship franchise is favored to join its predecessor in the $1 billion-plus club. From there, it’s a question of how well it will thrive alongside the equally highly anticipated Illumination film “Minions & Monsters” in July to determine whether it will join sequels to films like “The Incredibles,” “Inside Out” and “Zootopia” among the biggest U.S. animated hits ever.
Animated sequels have long been key pillars of the box office, especially after the pandemic. But in the past two years, the highest grossing movies of the year worldwide — “Inside Out 2” and “Ne Zha 2” — have come from that category with “Moana 2” and “Zootopia 2” close behind in the top 3 for their respective years.
While “Toy Story 5” might get bumped off the top spot by “The Odyssey” or “Avengers: Doomsday,” it should still climb to a high spot on the year-end charts. It is widely expected to beat the $120 million opening of “Toy Story 4,” with Disney projecting an opening of at least $140 million with independent trackers projecting $150 million.
Theatrical sources who spoke to TheWrap, however, think the movie could do even better, possibly challenging the $182.6 million opening of “The Incredibles 2” in 2018, an opening that stands as the highest 3-day domestic opening ever for an animated film. Helping fuel that are overwhelmingly positive reviews, which stand at a 93% Rotten Tomatoes score at time of writing.
To get that high, “Toy Story 5” will obviously need more than just family turnout. “Incredibles 2” got to $1.24 billion thanks to various factors that worked in its favor. Nostalgic millennials who saw the first “Incredibles” as kids showed up en masse, and its story of Mr. Incredible putting aside his dreams of returning to superhero stardom to be a stay-at-home dad made it resonate not just as a family title but also as a Father’s Day title.
“Toy Story 5” will definitely have the nostalgia play, as its high quality with four films released across a quarter century have allowed the franchise to be embraced by a whole new generation of kids, some of whom weren’t even born when “Toy Story 3” got a Best Picture Oscar nomination. And with Gen Z now around the same age millennials were when “Toy Story 3” was released, we will see how much they will drive general audience turnout for screenings outside the family-friendly matinee times.
While it is possible that “Moana” and “Minions & Monsters” could create competition for “Toy Story 5” that lowers the potential final global totals for all three films, we’ve seen with “Obsession” and “Backrooms” that well-received films with significant core audience overlap can coexist in this current marketplace where moviegoing interest is high. In addition, “Inside Out 2” was able to make $156 million at the domestic box office even after “Despicable Me 4” arrived as competition on Fourth of July weekend in 2024.
In short, this film is going to be a contender for the highest grossing movie of the summer and should help Disney shrug off the dismal theatrical run of “The Mandalorian and Grogu.” Though the struggles of that film have have put the long-term theatrical future of “Star Wars” into question, Disney’s 2026 at the box office has been generally good so far. Pixar’s original film “Hoppers” was a modest success with $372 million worldwide, and “The Devil Wears Prada 2” passed $675 million globally this past weekend.
If “Toy Story 5” and “Moana” pan out, we could be looking at a $3 billion-plus summer for Disney, proving again that even high-profile flops haven’t damaged their status as a box office cornerstone.
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