Steven Spielberg helped create the summer blockbuster with “Jaws,” a smash hit that opened in June 1975 and showed Hollywood how much money could be made when school’s out. It’s been more than 50 years since “Jaws” made audiences scared to go in the water, and Spielberg, who was 28 when the film premiered, is 79 and out to prove with “Disclosure Day” that he still knows how to draw crowds.
The alien invasion adventure opens on June 12 and, with its $115 million budget, represents one of summer’s biggest gambles — a twisty conspiracy thriller that doesn’t come wrapped in familiar IP. Because it’s an original story, Universal’s marketing has leaned heavily on Spielberg’s name to distinguish “Disclosure Day” from the franchise films and low-budget horror flicks that are dominating multiplexes. But the tracking is shaky, with the movie expected to open to $35 million — below the $50 million that some studios argue a film of that size should debut to in order to justify its cost. Because theaters keep roughly half of ticket sales and “Disclosure Day”’s marketing costs are about $80 million, rival executives believe the movie will need to earn $300 million globally to be profitable.
“Spielberg’s name carries weight, but it’s not the same [as it was],” says one studio executive. “Moviegoers who grew up with Spielberg are older, and those are the ones who are more challenged to go to cinemas.”
Spielberg was once synonymous with escapist entertainment, directing spectacles like “E.T. the Extra-Terrestrial” and “Jurassic Park” and creating the “Indiana Jones” franchise. Those films revolutionized the way that Hollywood does business — demonstrating that movies could sell T-shirts and toys as well as tickets. But Spielberg’s artistic ambitions shifted in the 1990s as he focused more on historical epics like “Schindler’s List” and “Saving Private Ryan.” That move to prestige dramas accelerated in the past decade, which saw Spielberg directing awards bait like “The Fabelmans” and the “West Side Story” remake to great acclaim. More commercial efforts like “The BFG” and “Ready Player One” were a mixed bag and largely failed to introduce Spielberg to a younger generation of moviegoers, the demographic that “Disclosure Day” needs to attract.
And that’s a problem because Spielberg doesn’t come cheap. His salary is usually $10 million for directing (he gets a producer fee too), and the actors in his movies often get their full freight. “Disclosure Day” stars Emily Blunt, whose asking price is $15 million, and Josh O’Connor, who has sought $6 million for previous pictures.
Spielberg isn’t always eager to be the public face of his work, but he has worked aggressively to sell “Disclosure Day,” dropping by CinemaCon and SXSW, appearing on podcasts like Michelle Obama’s “IMO” and “The Rewatchables,” and doing an event at TikTok headquarters with creator Reece Feldman to drum up interest with Gen Z moviegoers.
Despite his efforts, there’s a lack of awareness around the movie, with tracking lagging behind DC’s “Supergirl” and “Jackass: Best and Last,” both of which open weeks later. But sources close to Universal say that much of the marketing campaign for “Disclosure Day” is backloaded and hitting the week of release. The promotional campaign was always intended to break late, they say, to keep the story’s mysteries under wraps. Universal is betting “Disclosure Day” will enjoy strong reviews, which will drive business. Because Spielberg’s audience tends to be older and doesn’t feel the urgency to see a movie on opening weekend, “Disclosure Day” could continue to sell tickets through June and July.
“What will the legs look like? What will word of mouth look like?” asks Shawn Robbins, director of movie analytics at Fandango. “This seems like one that could really get people talking in a good way.”
At CinemaCon, Spielberg warned that Hollywood will “run out of gas” if it only makes reboots and sequels. “We need to tell more original stories,” he said.
Last month, a 26-year-old YouTube-trained filmmaker named Curry Barker enjoyed unprecedented box office returns with one of those original stories. “Obsession,” Barker’s low-budget thriller, attracted a rising generation of moviegoers by offering something they hadn’t seen on the big screen. Like Spielberg did with “Jaws” in 1975, Barker seemed to be charting a new direction for the movie business. Will “Disclosure Day” be part of that future or a reminder of its past?
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