“Spider-Man: Brand New Day” has some tracking services’ Spidey senses tingling that the film could “easily” clear $300 million for its opening weekend.
While Sony is keeping predictions relatively modest at $195 million, outside numbers show a bigger leap of faith as pre-sales data climbed on Thursday.
“‘Spider-Man’ is looking huge, we think it can finish the weekend as the second highest grossing domestic debut of all time,” Daniel Loria of industry tracking site Boxoffice Pro tells P6H. He adds that the film is, “Currently looking at a range of $280 million to $300 million, but I need to stress that number is by no means an expectation. Only nine movies have opened above $200 million, and just two of them have done so after the pandemic.” (One of those being the most recent “Spider-Man” film, “No Way Home,” which holds the franchise record with $260 million in December 2021.)
Loria says that while, “anything in the $200 million range would be considered a massive victory, the difficulty we have is finding a ceiling, especially considering [what] the pre-sales exhibitors have told us… We have some models showing this clearing $300 million easily, but still not coming close to dethroning ‘Avengers: Endgame’ for the top opening weekend of all-time,” at $357.1 million.
Another factor in the film’s favor is that it’s playing on so many screens, with Loria estimating nearly half of all showtimes going to “Brand New Day.” “Most titles opening will land somewhere in the 20 [percent],” Loria says.
For example, “The Odyssey” opened at No. 1 earlier this month with 22% showtime market share (though it had a substantial amount of IMAX screens). The Christopher Nolan film is expected to also have another strong weekend.
Either way, the big winner is Tom Holland, who is in both films. The star is next expected to play Fred Astaire in a biopic on the Hollywood hoofer, though Sony has said that film is still only in development.
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