China box office isn’t Hollywood kingmaker it used to be. Here’s why

Hollywood has lost one of its most lucrative theatrical markets. It’s unclear if it will ever win it back.

The Chinese box office was once a coveted space for American-made movies, so much so that studios produced films that would appeal directly to this international audience. But in the postpandemic cinema landscape, Hollywood hasn’t generated the strong ticket sales it once saw for its biggest blockbusters — and a waning relationship with Chinese cinemas is at least partly to blame.

The U.S.-China Film Agreement, struck in 2012 between the two governments, guaranteed 34 U.S. films would be released in China each year. That pact ended in 2017 and was never renewed or renegotiated. At the same time, China began expanding its local film production and instituting blackout dates to promote viewership of its homegrown titles. 

Add in strict censorship policies from the China Film Administration and recent political strains between the U.S. and China, and Hollywood films have faced several hurdles just to get distribution in the country post-Covid.

“I think that the kind of euphoria about the world’s largest market and thinking about China as a place that always creates a larger market for U.S. [intellectual property] is not accurate,” said Aynne Kokas, a professor at the University of Virginia and the author of “Hollywood Made in China.”

“[There are] constraints on the market in a couple of ways, first related to content control and not just content control in terms of censorship, but also in terms of control of distribution channels by the party,” Kokas said.

She said the film bureau will “turn on and off the levers of distribution based on the needs of the market.” If local Chinese films are doing well, the country will limit distribution access for foreign films. If there are gaps in film releases or releases aren’t selling as many tickets, it will open up the market.

In 2019, nine U.S. titles each generated more than $100 million at the Chinese box office, with Disney and Marvel Studio’s “Avengers: Endgame” collecting more than $600 million in the region, according to data from Comscore.

In the past five years combined, however, only 10 American films have generated more than $100 million in China, with only two topping $200 million.

The outlier is Disney’s “Zootopia 2,” which tallied a record-breaking $650 million in the country following its 2025 release.

Box office analysts tell CNBC that this feat is likely an anomaly and studios and Wall Street shouldn’t expect a sudden resurgence of ticket sales for American-made fare in the region even as major franchises launch ahead of the key summer movie season.

What performs well in the U.S. isn’t guaranteed to succeed in China, despite the massive audience potential.

“There’s not necessarily a one-to-one correlation between popular IP in the U.S. and popular IP in China,” Kokas said.

In some cases, it’s a lack of nostalgia on the part of Chinese audiences. Kokas noted that when Star Wars was introduced in the region with the sequel trilogy in 2015, it fell flat because the previous films from the original and prequel trilogies were never released in China, so the later installments didn’t have the boost of a built-in fanbase.

Distribution experts told CNBC that the Chinese film bureau and audience tend to gravitate toward features that are visual spectacles and apolitical.

Films that have performed well in the region since the pandemic include entries from the Fast & Furious saga, Jurassic World flicks and installments from the Godzilla and King Kong franchises.

Even with the recent lull in ticket sales from Chinese releases, studios aren’t deterred from launching titles in the region. One distribution expert told CNBC that China remains a major theatrical opportunity for American-made films.

“China remains an essential component in any international strategy by U.S.-based studios because there are many hundreds of millions of dollars potentially to be earned there due to an undeniable appetite in the region for the big Hollywood movies,” said Paul Dergarabedian, head of marketplace trends at Comscore.

Universal’s “The Super Mario Galaxy Movie” is the next U.S. entrant into the country, due in theaters this weekend.

The franchise’s first film, “The Super Mario Bros. Movie,” tallied more than $1.3 billion globally in 2023, but only $25 million of that total came from China.

One distribution expert told CNBC that console games, like Nintendo’s Super Mario franchise, are not as prevalent in the region, meaning the nostalgia that drove $575 million in domestic ticket sales was not a major factor over in China.

Meanwhile, in Japan, where Super Mario is a cultural icon, the film generated $102 million.

Still, the Chinese market helps bolster the overall haul of a film and has the potential to cement a breakout hit. So studios are still willing to give titles a theatrical release in the region.

Also on the docket for distribution in China this year is Universal’s “Michael,” Warner Bros.’ “Mortal Kombat II” and Disney’s “The Devil Wears Prada 2.”

Because of China’s strict censorship policies, films must be completed and screened by the film bureau before they are considered for distribution. Therefore, the Hollywood slate in China is not set in stone in the same way the domestic movie slate is.

But box office analysts expect titles like Disney and Pixar’s “Toy Story 5” and Warner Bros.’ “Dune: Part Three,” as well as Disney and Marvel’s “Avengers: Doomsday” to also land in Chinese theaters this year.