Disney, have you learned your lesson yet?
Following the watering down of the Marvel Cinematic Universe on Disney+ during Covid and the era of then-CEO Bob Chapek, Bob Iger during his second regime promised a curated selection of big hits, quality over quantity. But with Lucasfilm’s Star Wars: Mandalorian and Grogu and now the live-action remake of animated classic Moana, it’s clear that the Mouse House — to use a Snow White metaphor — doesn’t know when to stop taking too many bites of the apple.
Sources tell us that Moana, which arrives in theaters less than two years after the $1 billion-plus grossing animated hit Moana 2, stands to lose between $100 million-$125 million in the title’s first cycle after a $95M worldwide opening ($43M U.S./Canada) this weekend, a travesty for what was teed up as a summer tentpole and an extension of what is already a lucrative franchise for Disney (the two Moana animated movies have sold $22M in toys, generated $26M in music streams and have clocked 1.5B hours watched on the streaming service).
And by the way, that loss is if this movie hits $250M at the global box office, and our sources are being conservative. Disney didn’t reply to comment on our loss forecast.
Moana‘s opening here ain’t that far from Disney live-action disaster Snow White, which bowed to $87M WW and $42.2M in North America. However, that film was plagued by controversy over the seven dwarves and the pic’s star Rachel Zegler being outspoken. Moana had zero controversy in its run-up, and had the second most-watched trailer of any Disney IP live-action title (not including Marvel and Lucasfilm) at 182M views ever in its first 24 hours. So, WTF?
The deep-sixing of the musical island princess and demigod Maui in-the-flesh rendition boils down to, yes, an exorbitant cost at $250M before P&A (and an estimated $145M global spend), but that’s what a Dwayne Johnson tentpole can cost. The biggest voodoo to curse Moana was its release date — too soon after Moana 2 and in a crowded family July including Illumination/Universal’s Minions & Monsters but also Disney’s own Toy Story 5 (they posted a solid $20.5M second frame and fourth frame of $18.5M, respectively, this weekend). Disney is literally in competition against itself in the family space (even though the argument is that Moana skews female), and Moana was beat by Toy Story 5 in family-friendly markets like Mexico and Brazil. The overall $52M overseas opening is an upset, and Disney isn’t even using the “World Cup ate my homework” as an excuse.
Yes, live-action Moana was first, initially announced by Johnson and Iger during an annual shareholder meeting in April 2023. But then, Disney needed a Thanksgiving 2024 theatrical release, and to fill that void, Iger and Disney Entertainment Studios chairman Alan Bergman morphed the Moana animated series into a feature sequel, which wasn’t a bad idea. Sure, Moana 2 wasn’t as critically beloved as the two-time Oscar-nominated original (61% fresh to 96% certified fresh; A- CinemaScore to solid A), but it was an enormous hit, and the fact it opened eight years after the original was key. There was urgency, which isn’t the case for live-action Moana; families had just watched Moana 2, and with ticket prices being so high (it takes a lot to take out a family of four), why rush to cinemas when Moana will hit Disney+ down the road?
Soon after Moana 2 was announced, Disney moved Moana from June 27, 2025 to this weekend.
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What’s the best fix here in an alternative universe where Moana succeeds? A release date that’s anything but this year; maybe next year. Disney made a conscious business decision to release Moana before the onslaught of Universal’s Christopher Nolan epic The Odyssey next weekend and Sony/Marvel Studios’ Spider-Man: Brand New Day on July 31.
“Disney knew when they redated Moana that they had Moana 2 and Toy Story 5 in the mix; why they even considered a release date in 2026 blows my mind,” one veteran film finance source says.
Then there’s the production cost. A la DC’s Supergirl, which cost a net $170M, anything substantially lower (under $100M), and we’re having a different, more positive conversation about the box office results. I’m told a la Johnson’s Red Notice and Red One, the star was paid his de rigueur salary of at least $20M upfront (any cash break even + percent deal is not going to be reached, given the underperformance here). It was originally intended for Moana to start before the 2023 strikes, but the production got pushed to a July 2024 start date for a six-month shoot in Hawaii and a water tank shoot in Georgia. Post-production took 60 weeks given that there were 2,000 shots. A heavy live-action and VFX combo is the reason why, I’m told, this movie’s price tag was so high. Some were trying to point fingers at former Disney Motion Picture President Sean Bailey for Moana. However, he only greenlit the package, and wasn’t at the studio to babysit and steer production costs on Moana, the longstanding Mouse House exec departing in February 2024, and former Searchlight co-head David Greenbaum taking over his post.
Then there’s the marketing of Moana. Right now, all motion picture studio marketing executives should get the word “Furiosa” tattooed on their arms. That 2024 Mad Max spinoff misfired because the entire look of the campaign appeared too similar to its predecessor Mad Max: Fury Road, and that’s the same problem as to what went wrong here: There was nothing fresh in the Moana campaign, sans any kind of vida, to one-up itself from its previous promoted installments. Typically, movie marketing materials are tested, but the note wasn’t taken by Disney that a contingency of moviegoers were wigging out over Johnson’s wig.
Note that the filmmakers, led by Hamilton and Grease Live! director Thomas Kail, made a specific choice not to inject live-action Moana with new musical numbers or sequences, for fear of alienating the faithful. The only new song added was “Along the Way,” at the end credits, from near EGOT winner and Moana‘s “How Far I’ll Go” songwriter Lin-Manuel Miranda. Johnson typically works with the same filmmakers who are acquainted with his cadence from creative to business, i.e., Rawson Marshall Thurber, Brad Peyton, Jake Kasdan and Jaume Collet-Serra. Given that this was Kail’s first fire-breathing motion picture event film, was he over his skis? Was he unable to handle the Rock? Those close to the star tell us that Kail was perfectly qualified for the job, a master of directing musicals, establishing a shorthand with Johnson.
RelishMix reported prior to Moana‘s release, “There’s mixed-negative leaning chatter for Moana. The dominant conversation revolves around the perceived lack of necessity, heavy CGI, muted color grading, questionable wig design for Maui, and a feeling that the film sits awkwardly between animation and live-action. Smart critiques repeatedly note that the visuals often resemble AI-generated content, while others question why a movie this recent needed reimagining at all. Comparisons to live-action adaptations such as The Lion King, How to Train Your Dragon, and even parody sketches are frequent, with many arguing the original remains visually superior. Viewers also target the flat lighting, overuse of digital environments, and the sense that the production lacks the vibrancy associated with the South Pacific setting. Supporting reactions include: ‘It looks like someone uploaded Moana to AI and asked what it would look like in live action’ and ‘How did they make a beautiful place so dull?’ Additional examples include ‘This looks like a high budget SNL skit’ and ‘The colors and lighting are so dull and muted.’”
Disney and the filmmakers remain confident that there is a leg-out factor on the horizon for live-action Moana after her A- CinemaScore and 90% Rotten Tomatoes audience score (higher than Moana at 89% and Moana 2 at 85%), and that the female audience, which showed up here at 66%, will head to the film in a dude-laden July-August of Odyssey and Spider-Man: Brand New Day. The audience reaction here is evidence to the fact that Moana wasn’t a poor adaptation; it was just dated poorly.
Disney can defend that merchandise and theme parks will ultimately bail out Moana, but why, Maui, why prevail fatigue upon the brand?
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