The roller-coaster ride that accompanies the opening of a Star Wars movie is over — for now.
The final numbers are in for the long Memorial Day box office, and they show Lucasfilm/Disney’s Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu opening to $98 million for the four-day holiday at the domestic box office, and 82 million for the three day, after traffic slowed somewhat toward the end of the holiday frame.
In 2018, the ill-fated Solo: A Star Wars Story opened over Memorial Day weekend to $103 million domestically, including $84.4 million for the three-day weekend. It marked the worst debut for a Star Wars movie since Disney bought Lucasfilm in 2012. Now, it gets to pass that badge to Mandalorian. Or does it?
Overseas, where the sci-fi genre struggles badly in many markets, Jon Favreau’s big screen adaptation of his hit Disney+ series The Mandalorian posted an opening gross of $63 million through Sunday. When folding in Monday earnings, Mando‘s global total through May 25 stood at $167 million, just ahead of the the film’s reported net budget of $165 million before marketing and on par with Solo.
Solo opened to $65 million internationally a global debut hovering in the $168 million range. The big difference: the standalone film about Hans Solo cost more than $265 million to produce and lost tens of millions when falling off a cliff in its second weekend. It ultimately topped out at $393 million globally. Disney conceded publicly that the franchise was at a tipping point amid increased fan discontent (that discontent continues).
In terms of Mando, Disney — famous for being conservative in regards to its mid-weekend estimates — projected a four-day domestic opening of $102 million on Sunday morning, thanks to out-of-this world audience exits, including an 89 percent Rotten Tomatoes audience score, by far the highest for a Star Wars movie released by Disney. By Monday morning, the number was revised downwards to $100 million.
The box office remains forever changed by the pandemic, and for any film, a $98 million, four-day opening is celebrated by the entire industry. Openings north of $100 million have become few and far between (it seems unfathomable that 2015’s Star Wars: The Force Awakens, the first franchise title released by Disney, opened to more than $257 million in its first three-day weekend). Fun fact: Mando boasts the fourth-best Memorial Day debut in the post-Covid times, and ahead of the $79 million debut of last year’s Mission Impossible — The Final Reckoning. M:I went up against Disney’s mega blockbuster Lilo & Stitch, which opened to record-smashing $182.6 million.
So far this year, only one film has opened north of $100 million domestically, Universal and Illuminations’ sequel The Super Mario Galaxy Movie ($131.7 million). The pic is a blockbuster, to be sure, with more than $980 million in ticket sales to date, but playability has seen a films such as sleeper hit Project Hail Mary open to $80.5 million on its way to grossing north of $675 million globally. And Lionsgate’s Michael Jackson biopic Michael opened to $97 million domestically and is about jump the $800 million mark globally. All share one thing in common: they are PG-13 films playing to all audiences, even Gen Zers and families.
Favreau‘s film has every chance of repeating this pattern.
Disney continues to point out that Mando began its life on the small screen, so it is an entirely different proposition from previous titles in the Star Wars pantheon, and introduces new characters not tied to the saga movies or stand-alone features. (Put another way, imagine the pressure that Shawn Levy’s Star Wars: Starfigther will face when opening next year. It is the first Star Wars movie to be led by a major movie star, Ryan Gosling.)
The studio says box office aside, Mando will drive significant value across the broader Disney ecosystem, including consumer products and Disney+. The Mandalorian is the most-watched original series in the history of the service, with more than 1.3 billion hours streamed globally. Star Wars attractions at Disney’s parks are also in on the action, including a new Mandalorian and Grogu mission within Millennium Falcon: Smugglers Run that debuted day-and-date with the film, a first-ever for the company. There is also a major integration with Fortnite.
One thing is certain: all eyes will be on the film’s second-weekend drop.
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