Summer box office sizzled, but fall movie sales might see a lull

Superheroes, dinosaurs and a genetically altered alien dog helped propel the summer box office haul above 2024 levels, but that momentum is about to stall.

Heading into the final stretch of the summer season — which started the first weekend in May and wraps up on Labor Day — the domestic box office is expected to reach at least $3.75 billion, according to data from Comscore. That’s about a 2% uptick from the previous summer.

Hollywood had hoped the 2025 summer would be a return to form for the box office, reaching the $4 billion mark, which had become the standard prior to the pandemic. Ticket sales reached that figure in 2023, thanks to the powerhouse team up of Warner Bros.’ “Barbie” and Universal‘s “Oppenheimer.” However, the the past two summers have borne the brunt of production shutdowns caused by the dual writers and actors strikes two years ago.

Last summer, Disney and Pixar’s “Inside Out 2” and Marvel’s “Deadpool & Wolverine” helped buoy the May-to-August season to $3.67 billion, much higher than box office analysts had predicted earlier in the year.

Hollywood had hoped that the combination of major franchise titles — a new entry from the “Jurassic World” series alongside reboots of Superman and the Fantastic Four — would be enough to fuel the 2025 summer stretch to the $4 billion mark. Yet, none of those films generated more than $350 million domestically.

In fact, the highest-grossing film of the summer has been Disney’s live-action remake of “Lilo & Stitch,” which has tallied $421 million domestically as of Sunday. The second-highest is “Superman,” which stands at $340 million.

In previous summers, top films like “Inside Out 2,” “Barbie” and “Top: Gun Maverick” each brought in at least $600 million in ticket sales.

“What started with a historic Memorial Day weekend gave way to a mix of underperformers and crowd-pleasing hits,” said Shawn Robbins, director of analytics at Fandango and founder of Box Office Theory. “The back half of the season rebounded with several blockbusters and sleeper hits, but we continue to see audiences are highly selective when a barrage of franchise movies is out there despite many of those films generating positive reviews. Some connect in a big way, while others simply don’t catch on.”

Still, movie theater operators reported solid audience numbers and ticket sales during the second quarter, which included May and June box office figures.

“As to the strengthening industrywide box office, we firmly believe that this was not a short-lived spike, but rather, the beginning of a sustained and powerful resurgence for our entire industry,” Adam Aron, CEO of AMC, said during an earnings call last week.

Similarly, Cinemark CEO Sean Gamble noted during the company’s earnings call earlier this month that the April release of “A Minecraft Movie,” which ran well into the summer months, alongside “a steady stream of highly compelling new releases week after week, ignited a surge of summer moviegoing momentum.”

But he also warned that, as is typical in the theatrical business, August and September at the box office tend to “de-throttle a little bit.”

That is certainly the case this year, as well, but it is likely to extend well into October as well. While “Tron: Ares” and “Mortal Kombat II” are expected to draw in audiences during that month, box office analysts don’t expect a major breakout hit until late November.

“The post-summer corridor is looking a bit bereft of standout blockbusters,” said Paul Dergarabedian, senior media analyst at Comscore. “We’ll have to rely on the cumulative success of some low to mid-range performers along with what looks to be a really nice selection of awards caliber and indie films. That said, we may want to brace ourselves for a few fallow weeks at the box office.”

AMC’s Aron noted that the upcoming third-quarter box office will be “so-so given some seasonal, but not alarming softness,” but told investors to “hold onto your hats for the size of the box office in the fourth quarter.”

The turning point is expected to come Nov. 21 with the release of Universal’s “Wicked: For Good.” The highly anticipated sequel to last year’s hit “Wicked” is expected to open to over $100 million and steadily collect ticket sales through the rest of the year at the box office.

“Zootopia 2” arrives for the Thanksgiving holiday and is also expected to exceed $100 million during its opening frame.

“Avatar: Fire and Ash” will cap off the year and is expected to bolster the box office during the first few weeks of 2026.

“The final months of the year have potential to be nothing short of stellar,” Robbins said.

Disclosure: Comcast is the parent company of NBCUniversal, Fandango and CNBC.