Weather forecasters are under constant pressure to make the right decision, based on available data, when compiling a daily forecast to an unforgiving public.
This pressure increases when the forecast is for an important occasion, such as a big rugby or soccer final.
Naturally, when a forecast for a massive event such as former president Nelson Mandela’s funeral is made, the pressure is further compounded.
Granted, when conditions are stable, as in a highveld winter, forecasts become relatively simple, but in a stormy European summer, conditions can be quite tricky.
Now add to that the result of your forecast not only influencing the lives of 150,000 plus troops, but also the freedom of western society.
One would say that this would be a script for a Hollywood movie.
The funny side of the story is that it did become a Hollywood film, based on a 2014 stage play called Pressure by David Haig.
The truth of the matter is that this was not a fictional story but was based on historical facts about the behind-the-scenes activities prior to the allied invasion at Normandy, France.
It focuses on Group Captain James Stagg and the turmoil around the weather forecast for that historic event.
In May 2026, the movie Pressure premiered, a week earlier than the actual events of June 6 1944, and I was fortunate enough to watch it this weekend.
I don’t mind being accused of being completely biased, being a weatherman, but I thought that it was a brilliant film that I would highly recommend to anybody that has a keen interest in not only weather, but also the lesser-known history of World War 2.
The challenge was to get all weather and tidal requirements aligned to ensure a safe landing for the troops at Normandy.
These requirements included a full moon for night-time visibility, calm seas, clear skies for air support, and low tides so engineers could clear German beach obstacles before the water rose.
With an approaching storm and an urgency for the landing, these factors were vital before German forces could get wind of the plan.
Any delays would compromise the entire operation, and the next ideal tidal conditions would have been two weeks later.
Incidentally, that would have been a disaster as that day yielded the worst storm in living memory.
The crux of the forecast for the invasion date of June 5 1944, was go or don’t go.
Add to the fray that Stagg not only had to deal with the imposing characters of Field Marshal Bernard Montgomery and Supreme Commander Dwight Eisenhower but also had to pit wits with the US contingent of forecasters led by Irving P Krick.
All this while having no contact with his pregnant wife in a war-torn England.
Those combined conditions would make many a strong man crack.
Luckily, Stagg did not cave under this immense pressure.
Eisenhower was caught between having to accept one of two completely opposing forecasts, with Krick forecasting clear weather based on analogue forecasting, which uses historical weather maps that closely mirrored current meteorological conditions, to predict the timeline for the Normandy landings.
Stagg, however, disagreed, based on real-time barometric observations from the Atlantic, which showed an intense storm system moving toward the English Channel on June 5 1944.
A routine weather observation from a postmistress, Maureen Flavin, in the village of Blacksod in Ireland, 520 miles (836km) north of Normandy, showed that there would be a break in the weather on June 6 2026.
Eisenhower ultimately trusted Stagg’s advice to delay the invasion by 24 hours.
This decision proved vital, as it allowed the fleet to exploit a brief lull in the weather on June 6 1944.
And as they say in the classics, the rest is history.
At his inauguration in 1961, John F Kennedy asked Eisenhower what gave him the edge on D-Day?
His reply was simple: “We had better meteorologists than the Germans,” a testament to Stagg and his team.
He was ultimately awarded a CB OBE FRSE (distinguished orders of England), and the Legion of Merit medal.
On June 6 2019, exactly 75 years to the day since D-Day, he had a plaque unveiled to him in his hometown of Dalkeith by his son Peter, on the wall of the Dalkeith Library and Arts Centre.
Peter (a well-known rugby player) was selected for the 1968 British Lions tour to SA and played in three of the four internationals against SA.
One quote that Stagg left us with and one which I will often use in the future is: “Don’t ask when the wind will blow or when the rain will fall. Ask why.”
That in essence will give all a better understanding of the weather and the pressures weather forecasters throughout the world must endure.
This week in history:
2002: The strongest hourly average wind speed of 87km/h is recorded at the Gqeberha Airport.
Dam Levels
100.52% down from previous week at 100.66%.
Impofu 100.36%.
Weather Safety Tips:
Hold onto your doors and always ensure loads on vehicles are properly secured in strong gusty wind conditions.
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