Universal‘s highly anticipated Wicked: For Good is tracking to open to a victorious $115 million-plus at the Thanksgiving box office, according to prerelease tracking. That would set yet another new record for a musical adaptation of a Broadway musical.
The second title in Jon M. Chu‘s ambitious big-screen adaptation of the iconic Broadway musical about the witches of Oz opens in North America on Nov. 21, the weekend before the big feast. It’s also opening day-and-date around the globe.
Leading market research firm NRG has the female-fueled film debuting to $115 million domestically, but insiders with access to NRG’s raw data believe it could approach, or even clear, $120 million.
Additionally, sources say presales for the second installment are pacing well ahead of the first film, though Universal and the filmmakers are trying to manage expectations in sticking with a more conservative estimate of $115 million.
On the same weekend a year ago, the first Wicked soared to a record-breaking $112.5 million in its three-day debut, the best showing ever for a musical adaptation. It ultimately topped out at nearly $750 million at the worldwide box office, which is likewise the best showing ever for a Broadway musical adaptation, a genre that has been a tough nut for Hollywood to crack.
Wicked: For Good reunites producer Marc Platt and Chu with stars Ariana Grande and Cynthia Erivo, whose iconic characters must deal with the consequences of the choices they’ve made. Erivo plays Elphaba, aka the Wicked Witch of the West, while Grande plays Glinda the Good Witch. (Both are expected to be major players in the Oscar race. Ditto for the film.)
Last year, Wicked was tracking to start off with $85 million domestically, but obviously came in notably higher. Paramount’s Gladiator II also opened that weekend, earning a solid $55 million. This time out, Wicked: For Good is the only studio tentpole debuting. The following Wednesday, Disney Animation’s Zootopia 2 hits theaters (that film won’t come on tracking until next week).
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